Will There Be a US Economic Recession in the Next Year?

If you missed the best recent articles:

• Why Does America Still Have to Buy Oil?

• FIRST 100 DAYS OF TRUMP 2.0

• Rating and Ranking FED Chairs Since 1950

• Principles Changing the World Order

• Mar-a-Lago Agreement: How Trump Rearranges the World Order

• Business Valuation: DCF & Rule 40

• Nauru: The Collapse of the World's Richest Island Nation

• 5 Historical Asset Bubbles & Lessons for Investors

If there is any image that can accurately describe the current state of the US economy, it is… Schrödinger's cat. Lock it in a sealed box, and you won't know if it's alive or dead until you open the lid. In superposition, it is both alive and dead – a paradox that seems to exist only in quantum physics, but is now present in the heart of America.

Because, when you look at the financial markets – S&P500, Nasdaq – everything seems to be miraculously recovering. Stock indices keep hitting new highs, AI ignites growth expectations, investor confidence soars as if the US economy is entering a new boom cycle.

But when you shift your perspective to the macroeconomic foundation, the picture becomes pale:

• Q1/2025 GDP down 0.3% – a figure lower than expected and reflecting a slowing economy.

• Inflation still stuck around 3%, not back to the Fed's 2% target, while house prices, insurance, food continue to rise steadily like breathing.

• Labor market starting to slow – new hiring data cooling, unemployment claims rising gradually, and consumer confidence weakening.

All creating a paradoxical picture: the real economy is stalling, but financial assets are soaring. Are we living in an “illusion box” where markets reflect expectations, not reality?

It is in that ambiguous moment that the central question must be asked:

Will the US economy officially enter a recession within the next 12 months?
Or is America just temporarily coughing, and the economic Schrödinger's cat will wake up again?

In today's article, Viethustle will guide you through :

• Positive side: Reasons why the US economy hasn't officially recessed yet, and what supports are keeping it standing.

• Negative side: Cracks spreading from household consumption, businesses to labor market, indicating a "silent recession" is emerging.

• Summary of 12-month scenarios: From optimistic to worst – which is the most likely?