MACROECONOMICS

FIRST 100 DAYS OF TRUMP 2.0

... AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT 100 DAYS?

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The first 100 days of Donald Trump's second term did not start with celebratory fireworks on Wall Street, but with shocking signals: the S&P 500 recorded the worst performance for a re-elected president since World War II, US bond yields fluctuated in geopolitical spasms, and the dollar plunged at a speed unseen since Nixon abandoned the gold standard. A seemingly familiar start – full of tough statements, nationalist slogans, flash tariffs – but this time, the market is no longer smiling.

Instead, there is violent oscillation between expectations and skepticism, between inflation and recession, between “Trumpflation” and “Fed trap”. Financial assets are reacting no longer according to classical economic logic, but based on defensive psychology, news reflexes – whether good or bad. The current context is not just a short-term volatility, but a phase of comprehensive re-pricing of macroeconomic expectations, geoeconomic structures, and policy trust.

In today's article, Viet Hustler will dive deep with you into analyzing the following aspects:

  • A chaotic start across asset classes: Why did Trump's second term open with the worst S&P 500 performance since World War II, a plunging dollar, and volatile US bonds?

  • Tariffs – Patriotic promise or global nightmare?: We will dissect the real logic behind Trump's “flash” tariffs, and analyze whether they are creating strategic benefits or just deepening cracks in the global supply chain.

  • Trumpflation – When inflation is no longer a monetary issue: From import-driven supply shocks to defensive consumer psychology, we will dissect “Trumpflation” – a form of inflation characteristic of the post-globalization era.

  • Fed trap – The policy trap when expectations are no longer anchored: High-anchored inflation expectations put the Fed in a dilemma, unable to cut rates despite stagnating growth. This is changing the entire way markets price risk.

  • The US labor picture: Is it really as good as the headlines?

  • Businesses, investment & market psychology: From short-term euphoria to long-term worries – the “bad news is good news” psychology reflects a phase of disconnect between data and expectations.

  • The next 100 days of Trump's term: Will it be a “pivot” shift from “shock tariffs” to tax cuts and policies?

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Comments (2)

T
TONY5/4/2025

Càng ngày càng thích đọc bài trên này. Chi tiết và khách quan. Hi vọng Trump sẽ quyết định đúng đắn.

❤ 2
SL
Steve Le5/5/2025

Cảm ơn bạn

❤ 1