This is a very long and heartfelt article by Ryan - hope you can leave a comment below on whether this kind of long analysis is what everyone likes.
If you missed the best recent articles:
“When a dragon no longer soars, it starts gliding low in the fog - and people no longer know if it's accumulation momentum or a sign of exhaustion.”
If there's an image that can describe China's current economy, it's... a building being painted beautifully, while the foundation below sinks deeper every day.
From the outside, everything seems to be reviving:
GDP up 5.3% in Q1 – beating all expectations.
Industrial production steadily increasing, high-tech shining, financial markets temporarily stabilized after a series of stimulus measures.
Exports still positive, even surging in markets outside the US like Southeast Asia and Europe.
But stepping inside the paint layer:
Inflation below 0 – sign of full deflation returning.
Household consumption still cold, real estate in freefall, and shadow credit system recording unprecedented negative shock.
The working class falls into the gig economy vortex – where they drive, deliver, or livestream… to survive.
Meanwhile, Beijing pumps money like never before – but capital doesn't flow, because confidence in the future has drained away.
This is not a collapse-style crisis. This is silent stagnation – where the entire economy is “surviving”, but no longer vibrant.
Right in that “half-alive – half-dead” state, the key question to ask is not “How much is China growing?” – but:
Is China stepping into a real crisis – negative, prolonged, and without an exit?
In this week's article, Viethustle will dive deep with you into each structural layer:
Growth Recovery: Why is the 5.3% GDP figure a mechanical recovery illusion?
Cracks in Consumption and Real Estate: When people tighten their belts, confidence is drained, and housing turns from “accumulation asset” to “dead asset”.
Negative Credit Shock: TSF net decrease, credit choked – hallmark sign of an economy falling into balance sheet defense mode.
“Tengnuo” Strategy and De-Dollarization of Finance: As China gradually withdraws from the USD system without alarming anyone.
Smoldering Social Conflicts: As the “AI-coding” class increasingly diverges from the “TikTok keyboard” class.
Vietnam: transit point or double-edged sword?
And finally: Will China fall into crisis in 2025, or step into a “lost decade” Japanese-style with Chinese characteristics?
