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Oscar Health was once among the most anticipated stories in the tech-ification of the US health insurance industry.
A startup with superior UX, data, AI, and ambitions to 'reinvent from scratch' a clunky, user-unfriendly sector.
To many investors, Oscar was seen as a generational investment opportunity.
But everything changed after the early July guide cut
Oscar pre-announced a Q2 GAAP loss of $228 million, raised full-year Medical Loss Ratio to 86–87%, and flipped 2025 outlook to operating loss of $200–300 million.
→ Opportunity for Viet Hustler to post:
Price on 07/05/2025: $16
Subsequent high - low: $24 (+50%) and $13 (-19%)
Notably: revenue didn't decline. The issue isn't demand, but risks and costs – which have 'eroded' the entire growth narrative.
Thus, Oscar Health has become one of the market's toughest psychological holds: high volatility, constantly shifting narrative, and a blurry line between genuine turnaround and misplaced hope. In this week's piece, Viet Hustler systematically dissects Oscar Health to answer the core question:
Is Oscar Health truly on the road to revival?
Oscar Health: Big Opportunity in a Distorted Health System
Analyzing Oscar Health's Competitive Advantages
Business Results Analysis
Future Outlook
Risks as ACA Subsidies Expire
Preliminary Valuation
Insurance stock Oscar Health is a buy and can jump nearly 40%, Wells Fargo says in upgrade
