Oscar Health: Revival Ahead?

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Oscar Health was once among the most anticipated stories in the tech-ification of the US health insurance industry.

• A startup with superior UX, data, AI, and ambitions to 'reinvent from scratch' a clunky, user-unfriendly sector.

• To many investors, Oscar was seen as a generational investment opportunity.

But everything changed after the early July guide cut

Oscar pre-announced a Q2 GAAP loss of $228 million, raised full-year Medical Loss Ratio to 86–87%, and flipped 2025 outlook to operating loss of $200–300 million.

→ Opportunity for Viet Hustler to post:

• Price on 07/05/2025: $16

• Subsequent high - low: $24 (+50%) and $13 (-19%)

Notably: revenue didn't decline. The issue isn't demand, but risks and costs – which have 'eroded' the entire growth narrative.

Thus, Oscar Health has become one of the market's toughest psychological holds: high volatility, constantly shifting narrative, and a blurry line between genuine turnaround and misplaced hope. In this week's piece, Viet Hustler systematically dissects Oscar Health to answer the core question:

Is Oscar Health truly on the road to revival?

Oscar Health: Big Opportunity in a Distorted Health System

1. Analyzing Oscar Health's Competitive Advantages

2. Business Results Analysis

3. Future Outlook

4. Risks as ACA Subsidies Expire

5. Preliminary Valuation

6. Insurance stock Oscar Health is a buy and can jump nearly 40%, Wells Fargo says in upgrade