MACROECONOMICS

US economic growth in Q2: is there still a recession risk?

What you need to know about US GDP growth drivers. Is there still concern about recession after last week's 2.8% figure?

Last week, the actual GDP growth figure for Q2/2024 was at +2.8% (Q/Q - annualized) far exceeded the market's +2% forecast. The PCE inflation figure also remained at +2.6% y/y (higher than expected).

These two reports have led most people to believe that the Fed can achieve a soft-landing, and the Fed still has time to wait for inflation to fully subside before cutting interest rates.

Additionally, in the previous podcast episode, many Viet Hustler readers were quite surprised why Viet Hustler was not too concerned about the goods deflation issue? Why has goods PMI been in contraction territory for a long time but Viet Hustler only worries when services PMI enters contraction?

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