The $700 Billion AI Capex Race: Who is Making Money, and Who is Burning Cash?

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On April 30, Wall Street collectively held its breath as four giants-Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta-reported earnings in a single night. TSMC had kicked things off two weeks prior. Apple closed the curtain the following morning.

The combined market cap of this group exceeds $14 trillion-nearly equal to the entire GDP of China.

At a glance, everything looks fine:

• All beat revenue and EPS expectations

• Cloud continues to accelerate

• AI revenue run-rate is jumping by triple digits

• Cash flow from operations remains very strong

But the market is no longer grading on the old curve.

In the same earnings season, reactions were completely polarized:

• Alphabet: Cloud grew 63% → clear acceleration

• Microsoft: AI reached $37 billion in annual revenue, but Cloud margins were compressed → mixed signal

• Amazon: AWS grew 28%, chips exceeded $20 billion → growing but weak cash flow

It is no coincidence; these figures reflect how the market perceives the future potential of these businesses.

Total committed CapEx for the hyperscaler group now exceeds $700 billion -larger than the GDP of Switzerland, nearly equal to the U.S. defense budget.

• This figure increased by about $50 billion in just one quarter, primarily because Meta and Google continued to raise guidance.

$700 billion is the largest investment in the history of U.S. corporations.

And it is happening in a uniquely unfavorable environment:

• The U.S.-Iran conflict pushed oil prices up 80% YTD

• The Strait of Hormuz is not yet fully open

• DRAM prices rose 158% (from $3.76/GB to $9.71/GB according to IDC)

• Spot H200 GPU rental prices jumped from $2.27/hour in January to $3.82/hour.

• A helium crisis from the attack on a Qatar LNG plant disrupted semiconductor production.

• Diesel prices have risen 42% since the war began.

All input costs are rising-but no hyperscaler is cutting its plans.

The question is no longer “is there enough money”-but “what is that money creating, for whom, and how much of the profit will be erased by escalating input costs.”

In today's article, Viet Hustler will analyze the Q1/2026 results of each company in detail and rank their financial endurance in the longest race since the dot-com era:

1. Q1/2026 Earnings Update: TSMC – Google – Microsoft – Amazon – Meta – Apple

2. $700 Billion CapEx: Where is the money flowing?

3. AI Monetization Scorecard - Who is actually making money from AI investments?

4. Capex heat tolerance and bear case scenarios

5. Risks and preliminary valuation