The Mine-To-Magnet War: US–China And Rare Earth Power

SUNDAY POLITICS: BITCOIN, GOLD, CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICA - RAY DALIO

- How do liquidity traps and negative interest rates work?

- Should you borrow when the government prints money?

- Why does Ray Dalio choose gold over Bitcoin?

- What will the future of America and the war with China be like?

“The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.”

— Deng Xiaoping

If you had to choose an image for the 2025 geo-economic scramble, it's not aircraft carriers or supercomputers. It's a coffee machine: the whole world has coffee beans (ore), but Beijing holds the roaster-grinder, recipe, and barista. Anyone wanting a proper NdPr/Dy/Tb espresso has to drop by the Chinese cafe.

From the surface, the market seems abundant: rare earth prices were “suppressed” throughout 2023–2024, many Western projects are rolling out, reassuring speeches follow one after another. But step behind the backstage door, and we see the West's fatal weakness: separation-refining and magnets – where China holds ~90% capacity and ~93% production. Just “turn the valve” on quotas or switch to licensing mode, and the entire AI–EV chain grinds to a halt.

“Washington's 'Liberation Day' 4/2025 – the 25–50% tariff wall – was supposed to squeeze the opponent, but instead struck America's own midstream vital point. MP Materials stops shipping ore to China, NdPr price surges: tariffs meet minerals, and the point of impact is the separation-refining furnace.

So the right question is no longer “who has the mines?”, but: who controls the smelting furnace and who writes the price list?

In this article, Viethustle goes through each layer of the “mineral card game”:

• China – king of chemical refining: two-tier strategy (capacity + soft prices), the Damocles sword of quota/licensing hanging over AI–EV–defense.

• Trump 2.0 – Made in America: tariffs, subsidies, buyer-of-last-resort for NdPr/magnets, and the idea of a “Mineral Fed” to regain price standards.

• North America locks the mine-to-magnet loop: MP, Ramaco, Canada/Saskatchewan, Greenland – which pieces are real, which are still promises.

• Allies in a pincer: Japan (Lynas + urban mining), Australia (Mt Weld/Kalgoorlie), Vietnam (geopolitical gold but lacking the furnace), EU (CRM Act – law yes, mines no), and Ukraine – treasure sealed shut.

• The final equation: when will the West have enough smelting furnaces and price standards so that each “valve turn” by Beijing is just a ripple, not a storm.

Because in the AI–EV era, power does not lie in the drill bit, but in smelters – where nameless powders become the magnet hearts of the digital economy.