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Election odds swing sharply - Kamala gains advantage
After a long time financial markets (yields & crypto & ) as well as betting odds completely tilted toward Donald Trump, an adjustment occurred last weekend.
The reason stems from Iowa last Saturday:
Iowa, a stronghold of the Republican Party, the latest poll by Ann Selzer, famous for her accuracy in Iowa, shows Kamala +3%
Ann Selzer's polling history:
However, another Emerson poll shows Trump +10
→ If losing Iowa, it means losing the Republican stronghold → Trump will definitely lose.
However, many experts agree that the above Iowa poll may just be margin of error.
Election betting odds immediately swing sharply:
PredictIt has Kamala leading
Polymarket Trump still leading though with lower odds:
Bitcoin also breaks down:
→ Besides the Ann Selzer poll, financial markets have also truly moved (converge) to match the traditional polling ratios below
