Market 11/04: Data Pointing to Who Will Be President?

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Election odds swing sharply - Kamala gains advantage

After a long time financial markets (yields & crypto & ) as well as betting odds completely tilted toward Donald Trump, an adjustment occurred last weekend.

The reason stems from Iowa last Saturday:

Iowa, a stronghold of the Republican Party, the latest poll by Ann Selzer, famous for her accuracy in Iowa, shows Kamala +3%

• Ann Selzer's polling history:

• However, another Emerson poll shows Trump +10

→ If losing Iowa, it means losing the Republican stronghold → Trump will definitely lose.

However, many experts agree that the above Iowa poll may just be margin of error.

Election betting odds immediately swing sharply:

• PredictIt has Kamala leading

• Polymarket Trump still leading though with lower odds:

• Bitcoin also breaks down:

→ Besides the Ann Selzer poll, financial markets have also truly moved (converge) to match the traditional polling ratios below

Data pointing to who will win the election?