10Y yield pushes right up to 5% putting heavy pressure on liquidity while VIX lightly passes panic level 20 from early morning. SPY and SPX approach put wall level 430/4300 with buyers trying to regain control of the market after weaknesses since yesterday afternoon. Overall, volatility increases with downside market risk similar to those OpEx week analysis October.
Today's stock market moves entirely driven by macroeconomic conditions as influences from war, bond yields, and interest rate plans mark a sudden shift in cash flow. After SPX successfully defended 4300 level and started rallying, the US government issued a warning about possible terrorist attack, pulling the market below put wall 430~SPY.
Overall, the market found a bottom in the morning and tried to rally but was held back by macroeconomic factors. If VIX can stay below 20 and 10Y cools below 5.00%, the market will have conditions to recover SPY/SPX and hold above 430/4300.
