MARKET DAILY

Market 10/17: SPY heads toward 440 shrugging off geopolitical risks

September retail sales rose more than expected. Record-high borrowing costs are causing difficulties for businesses.

The market opened Monday's first trading session of the week with extremely strong buying across all S&P500 sectors during the first hour. Indices rallied SPY 1.05%, QQQ 1.13%, and IWM 1.60% before options flow pressure started reversing against the market and exerting strong influence. This clearly shows investors and traders are not yet ready for a sustained rally, at least not yesterday. Put flow pressure eased in the early afternoon, helping the market recover and maintain range trade for the day.

However, noteworthy is that from yesterday to today, negative delta across the market continues to hold SPY's call wall at 440 while SPX's call wall rises to 4450. Currently, 440 is a key level for SPY in this week's October OpEx, with high likelihood SPY will pull back here and fail to break 440 at least until OpEx ends. Investor and trader sentiment and actions from yesterday and today largely reinforce this view.

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