Market on the first day of April: Industrial production index hits COVID bottom, signaling imminent recession

Last week's article: "In God We Trust" - faith in the position of the USD

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Macro signals continue not to favor the US economy right on the first day of Q2 with both S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing - the two most important US industrial indices - declining for the 5th consecutive month and hitting the lowest level since 05/2020, the COVID bottom. Meanwhile, at last week's meeting, OPEC+ leaders unexpectedly cut crude oil production, continuing to go against the US government's wishes amid Middle Eastern countries continuing to draw closer to China after Saudi Arabia officially submitted its application to join the BRICS bloc last week. The stock market in general had little reaction in the morning on extremely low liquidity as most investors decided to sit on the sidelines waiting for jobs data in the coming days before the market closes for Good Friday on Friday.

Specifically, March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI hit 49.2, slightly up from 47.3 in February, while ISM Manufacturing fell to 46.3 from 47.7 previously. Note that all indices below 50 indicate “contraction” in economic activity. This is the 5th consecutive month of decline with ISM Manufacturing nearly hitting the COVID bottom of 05/2020.