Market 06/21: June PMI surges while LEI continues to decline

Banking, Real Estate, and Bad Debt Crisis 2024 Officially Begins

US Banking, Real Estate, and Bad Debt Crisis Begins After 5 banks with over $548 billion collapsed in 2023, the entire market still believed that the banking sector crisis had officially ended. However, the latest developments show that this crisis will become more severe by the end of this year. In the latest video, Steve will answer 3 questions:

Will the historical crisis pattern continue?
What is the serious reason for this crisis?
Will 2008 repeat?

June PMI surges - Leading Economic Index (LEI) slightly declines

Composite PMI (S&P Global) rises from 54.5 last month to 54.6, (> estimate 53.5).
- S&P Global Services PMI up +0.3 points to 55.1 - highest level since April 2022
- Manufacturing PMI rises from 51.3 last month to 51.7 (> estimate 51)

Services PMI surprises by exceeding estimates of all surveyed economists

Composite PMI remains a leading indicator of GDP: GDP may still grow well this quarter.

US PMI is the highest rising PMI among major economies (except China data not updated yet):

Eurozone PMI falls again to 50.8, much lower than estimate 52.5

Meanwhile: Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to fall -0.5% M/M (estimate: -0.3% | previous month: -0.6%)

Housing market: Existing home sales drop for 3rd consecutive month

May existing home sales continue to decline: -0.7% M/M (estimate: -1%; previous: -1.9%)

Simply because median sales price +5% Y/Y to record high 419,300 USD

The higher the price, the lower the home sales

While mortgage rates remain above 7% ….

… these factors make home buying conditions at the worst level in history:

Housing inventory on market slightly up +18.5% M/M to 1.28 million, but still much lower than pre-pandemic when mortgage rates were low

Japan: Services PMI weakens for the first time in nearly 2 years

June Composite PMI plunges to 50
Services PMI falls to 49.8, first time <50 since August 2022
Manufacturing PMI falls to 50.1

Deputy Governor Uchida implies BOJ ready to raise rates when inflation shows signs of rising again (inflation has risen back to 2.5% y/y).

Japanese Yen at 34-year low vs USD: USD/JPY risks exceeding 160

Crypto Market: Standard Chartered plans to launch trading desk for Bitcoin and Ether

Standard Chartered Bank begins implementing Spot Bitcoin Trading Desk - one of the first global banks to participate in spot Bitcoin trading

Canada receives first Solana ETF application

Other news

Nearly 109 million USD in customer deposits in Fintech app Yotta have evaporated following the collapse of Synapse

Macron's camp unexpectedly gains a slight advantage (22% support), but still trails Le Pen's far-right party (34%) and the left-wing alliance (29%) — according to a recent survey.

Deadline for next student debt forgiveness decision is 06/30.

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