VIDEO: Is the US May Jobs Report FAKE or Not?
US added 272,000 jobs in May, nearly double the expected and previous month's figures. However, unemployment rate rose, labor force participation fell, and household survey shows US LOST 408 thousand jobs instead of adding. Why is that?
Jobs Report (NFP): Government is "subsidizing" jobs – unemployment surges
Job growth higher than expected: Payrolls up but jobs down
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) +272,000 jobs in May (strong increase vs. expectations 180,000 and previous month 165,000).
March revised down 5,000 jobs and April revised down 10,000.
Once again, big divergence between 2 reports: Household survey shows sharp drop in labor force -408,000 (previously +25,000).
Government is “subsidizing” jobs for the people
Public and private payrolls both increased last month.
Specifically:
Government jobs rebounded (+43,000) after sharp drop last month (8,000).
Sector services still attracts the most workers: Education and health (+86,000), Entertainment (+42,000),…
This is also the first time government jobs hit a new record high 23.3 million.
Birth-Death Model adjustment accounts for 56% of all jobs over the past year
Unemployment rate sees highest increase in 2 years
Unemployment rate first hits milestone 4% in over 2 years, higher than expected.
Unlike previous month, May's increase mainly from part-time jobs (+286,000).
Full-time jobs drop sharply -625,000 - the largest drop since December last year.
FYI: Number of workers holding multiple jobs (multi jobs) hits record 8.4 million in May (up more than 3 million from the Covid low) → Reason for surge in part-time jobs.
→ People are trying to work more to combat inflation pressure.
Long-term unemployment rate (> 27 weeks) edges up to 20.7%.
Number of long-term job losers (permanent job) edges up, while workers on temporary layoff show signs of decrease in May.
Wage growth edges up but overall trend still declining
Average hourly earnings in May edge up to +4.1% YoY (previous 4%, expected 3.9).
→ Workers most likely to get raises are part-time workers with lower incomes.
Month-over-month, average hourly earnings also rise to +0.4% MoM (estimate 0.3%, previous 0.2%).
Earnings rise but average weekly hours unchanged at 34.3.
Labor force participation rate also falls to 62.5% (previous: 62.7%).
… in both male workers (67.8%) and female (57.6%).
Labor force participation rate for prime-age (25-54 years old) at highest since May 2022.
→ The labor market is stabilizing more.
Most jobs go to immigrants
Market reaction:
Overall, the May jobs report is not expected to be convincing enough for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Probability of a cut in July drops to 8.8% (from 21% previously).
FYI: From the beginning of the year to now, 210 companies recorded bankruptcy, highest since 2012, mostly in Consumer and Healthcare sectors,
Just in April, this number reached 66 companies.
→ Prolonged high interest rates are causing difficulties for many companies, raising concerns for soft-landing expectations.
Roaring Kitty cheerfully shares $235 million loss today live on stream
GameStop stock repeatedly halted before stream starts
Before live stream, 620,000 people waiting
Roaring Kitty streams 30 minutes late and appears in rather “weird” state
Not much “serious” information in the live stream
Mainly talks about faith in GameStop's new management
When GameStop resumes trading, Roaring Kitty's position up 84% but loses $235 million just today
Entire position remains intact, unchanged from the beginning
Some other news:
GameStop stock trading halted right before Roaring Kitty's livestream.
Previously GME surged +40%, then dropped -25% in just the past 6h, equivalent to market cap change of about ~$15 billion.
Nearly 30,000 Samsung employees go on strike for the first time in history due to labor dispute.
Airbus builds new A320neo assembly line in Toulouse to boost production efficiency.
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