Market 05/16: What did investment funds buy and sell in the first 3 months of the year?

Manufacturing sector report: Growth declines

Industrial production index lower than expected as output falls

April industrial production index rises modestly +0.01% MoM (expected: +0.1%), after March data revised down to +0.1% MoM.

This is the 11th/13th month where data was revised downward.

→ Signs that industrial production is weaker than expected and will soon reflect in GDP.

Capacity utilization of production facilities continues to fall to 78.4%.

Output at manufacturing factories with production workshops falls -0.3% MoM (expected: +0.1%, previous: +0.2%), dragging annual output down -0.5% YoY.
- … mainly due to auto factories shutting down.

Fed Philly manufacturing index lower than expected

Fed Philly manufacturing index: +4.5 (expected: +8.0, previous: +15.5)
Employment: -7.9 (previous: -10.7)
New orders: -7.9 (previous: +12.2)
Input prices: +18.7 (previous: +23.0)
Output prices: +34.4 (previous: +5.5)
Delivery times: -0.8 (previous: -9.4)
Inventories: -10.1 (previous: -8.9)

Initial jobless claims this week decrease after New York holiday ends

Initial jobless claims for the previous week fall to 222K after the surge in the previous week (estimate: 220K, previous: 232K).

Last week, jobless claims surged in New York due to public schools' spring break — some workers (e.g., bus drivers, etc.) were allowed to file claims.
- However, the number dropped sharply after the holiday ended.

Continuing claims rise 1.79 million.

Housing starts rose less than expected due to rising mortgage rates

April housing starts rise +5.7% MoM (est. +7.6%, prior -16.8%).
Building permits fall -3% MoM (est. +0.9%, prior -5%). → Upcoming housing starts expected to decline.

→ Rising mortgage rates are slowing construction.

The decline in building permits mainly came from single-family housing (-0.8% MoM) and multi-family housing (-9.1% MoM).
- While rental apartments surged +31.4% MoM.

Specifically:

Single-family permits fall to 976K (prior: 984K) - lowest since August 2023.
Multi-family permits fall to 408K (prior: 449K) - lowest since October 2020

Completed homes rose to 1.09 million units, highest since November 2022.

Homes under construction declined, however construction employment is trending up.

However, it cannot be denied that rising mortgage rates are significantly affecting homebuilders' sentiment.

Report 13F: BTC funds attract large capital from investment institutions

The 13-F report requires institutional investment managers (over $100 million) to report managed assets to the SEC each quarter.

Nearly 1500 institutional investment managers filed 13F:

Portfolios of some famous private funds: See on Viet Hustler's Fanpage

Of which, 937 companies are investing in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- … compared to 95 for Gold ETFs.

Investment institutions own the majority of shares: up to 11.06 billion USD End of Q1.

IBIT holder count at record high of 414 funds ~44% — mainly foreign funds.
65% of institutions own GBTC:

Overall, leading BTC ETF funds like GBTC, IBIT,… are attracting the majority of investment capital compared to other ETFs…

Millennium Management holds up to $844,181,820 IBIT.

Top 10 financial funds holding GBTC:
Top 10 funds holding IBIT:
Top 10 funds holding FBTC:
Top 10 funds investing in ARKB:
Top 10 investments in BITB:

Earnings reports of companies: Walmart, Cisco, Baidu, John Deere

Walmart ER: Earnings beat expectations due to increase in high-income shoppers

Revenue: up +6% YoY, reaching 161.5 billion USD (beating forecast by 3.4 billion USD).
Non-GAAP EPS: 0.60 USD (beat estimates by 0.08 USD).
US sales: up +4% YoY.
E-commerce revenue surges +21% YoY.
Advertising expenses up +24% YoY.

FY2025 guidance:

Net sales up 3-4% YoY, in constant currency.

Cisco ER: Revenue drops the most in 15 years

EPS: 88 cents (expected 82 cents).
Revenue: down -13% YoY, reaching 12.7 billion USD (expected 12.53 billion USD) - the lowest since 2009.
- Cisco's acquisition of Splunk contributed 413 million USD in revenue.
Net income down -41% YoY, reaching 1.89 billion USD

Baidu ER: Robotaxi expected to be profitable next year

Revenue up 1% YoY, reaching 31.5 billion RMB.
Net income up 110% QoQ, reaching 5.4 billion RMB.
Recently, Baidu launched the sixth-generation robotaxi - RT 6 which is 60% cheaper than the previous generation.
- Expected that Apollo Go robotaxi will be profitable next year.

Deere ER: Global demand for crops and turf continues to decline

Revenue down 12% YoY, reaching 15.24 billion USD (forecast 13.26 billion USD).
Income: 2.37 billion USD.
EPS: 8.53 USD (> estimate 7.86 USD).

Some other news:

GDPNow Fed Atlanta forecast estimate for Q2 GDP growth down to 3.6%.

Dow Jones hits 40,000 for the first time in history.

Over 15% of Gen Z maxed out credit limits in Q1/2024, highest since Covid.

Japan Q1 GDP fell faster than expected (-2% YoY) as consumers and businesses cut spending. → BoJ cannot raise rates at present.

China increases sales of US bonds to record high in Q1:
- Viet Hustler previously warned that the large amount of US bonds held by China could become “hostages” in the de-dollarization campaign. (Read more: here).
- China is not an ally of the US like Japan so they are willing to sell US bonds to protect the Yuan.