MARKET DAILY

Market 04/29: Japan intervenes to save the Yen

Republic First Bank collapses - China agrees to let Tesla deploy self-driving cars

Dallas Fed manufacturing index falls more than expected

Dallas Fed April manufacturing index drops to -14.5, down more than expected (-11.3) and previous month (-14.4)

  • New orders still in contraction territory

  • Prices paid decrease

  • Average workweek improves but still in contraction

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High interest rate pressure: Republic First Bank fails + stress in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market

The high interest rate environment maintained by the Fed continues to pressure the banking system and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market:

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  • Republic First Bank, following SVB, Signature Bank and FRB, continues to fail due to bond losses…

    • This bank was shut down by Pennsylvania regulators last Friday - acquired by Fulton (with FDIC support).

  • Delinquency rates on office/business space leases rise:

    • 43% of small businesses in the US unable to fully pay office rent in April - highest rate since March 2021.

    • > 50% of small businesses say current rents are higher than 6 months ago.

    • 52% of restaurants have overdue debt…

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China: Industrial profits decline - doubts about economic recovery

  • March industrial companies' profits down -3.5% Y/Y

  • Q1 cumulative profits up +4.3% Y/Y to 1.5 trillion CNY

China Industrial Profits Drop as Demand From Overseas Stalls - Bloomberg

China 10-year government bond yield rises to two-month high

PBOC advises commercial banks to limit investments in ultra-long-term bonds to minimize risks.


Japan: Traders short JPY at record levels, signs of BOJ intervention

For the first time since 1990, the Japanese Yen weakens to 160 vs USD.

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Total short positions in Yen by hedge funds and asset managers rise to 184,180 contracts - higher than previous week's record short

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USD/JPY exchange rate shows signs that some form of intervention to support the Yen was carried out last night/this morning (US time).

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  • However, it seems Viet Hustler analyzes in the Macroeconomics article:

    • BOJ will not intervene massively by buying large amounts of JPY like in October 2022 — but only gradually.


Crypto Market: Australia prepares for major Bitcoin ETF launches in 2024

Australian exchange ASX considering approval of first Bitcoin Spot ETF.

Circle's stablecoin surpasses Tether to lead in trading volume.

Russia prepares to completely ban cryptocurrencies as geopolitical tensions rise


Earnings: SoFi, Domino’s Pizza, Philips

  1. SoFi

  • Revenue: 645 million USD, +37% Y/Y

    • Lending: Revenue 330.5 million USD, -2% Y/Y, with profit of 207.7 million USD.

    • Technology platform: Revenue 94.4 million USD, +21% Y/Y, profit +107% Y/Y

    • Financial services: Revenue 150.6 million USD, +86% Y/Y

  • Net income: 88 million USD, second consecutive quarter of positive GAAP profit

  • Customer count: +622,000 new members, bringing total to over 8.1 million.

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  1. Domino’s Pizza

  • Revenue: 1.08 billion USD, +5.9% Y/Y

    • Domestic stores: +5.6% Y/Y

    • International stores: +0.9% Y/Y

  • EPS: 3.58 USD, +22.2% Y/Y

  • Operating profit: 210.4 million USD, +18.6% Y/Y due to effective cost management.

  • Dividend: 1.51 USD/share

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  1. Philips

  • Revenue: 4.14 billion EUR, lower than 4.17 billion EUR Q1/2023

  • Net loss: 998 million EUR

  • Provisions: 982 million EUR


Key events for the week 04/29 - 05/05

  1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday

  2. JOLTS job openings data - Wednesday

  3. Fed interest rate decision - Wednesday

  4. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Friday

  5. April jobs report data - Friday

  • ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week


Other news

  1. UMB acquires rival Heartland Financial USA Inc. for ~2 billion USD (45.74 USD/share)

  1. Oil prices fall as Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks reduce concerns about larger conflict in the Middle East.

Oil Dips as US Steps Up Efforts to Secure a Truce in Gaza
  1. China lifts restrictions on Tesla electric vehicles after passing data security requirements => $TSLA up 11%

  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability will soon be available in China.

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  1. WeWork rejects capital from founder Neumann, secures 450 million USD loan from other lenders, escapes brink of bankruptcy

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