Market 04/15: March retail sales exceed forecasts

NY Fed President William said:

The economy will continue to grow around +2% this year
The market is pricing in slower disinflation progress
If inflation continues to decline gradually, the Fed could start cutting interest rates this year.
Monetary policy is in a good state and consumption as well as the overall economy continue to grow strongly

March retail sales: +0.7% M/M, much higher than the estimate of +0.4% but lower than the previous month's +0.9% increase.

In fact, February retail sales were revised up from +0.6% m/m to +0.9% m/m — the largest increase in a year.

Control group retail sales surge +1.1% M/M - strongest increase since January 2023, after +0.3% m/m last month.

Core retail sales (excluding autos) +1.1% M/M (expected +0.5%), sales excluding autos and gas +1.0% M/M (expected +0.3%)

March retail sales and 3-month average by component:

Total spending at restaurants and bars increases +0.4% M/M - weaker increase than previous month

However, real retail sales (seasonally unadjusted) in March saw a large decline - the 12th decline in the past 17 months

US 10-year Treasury yield surges to highest level since the beginning of the year after retail sales report:

As higher-than-expected retail sales erode confidence that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year.

World leaders call on parties to remain calm and “exercise maximum restraint” after Iran's large-scale airstrikes on Israel.

Israeli Defense Minister tells the Pentagon: No choice but to retaliate against Iran.
=> Many fear the conflict will spread.

VIX (market volatility index) surges above 17 points on Friday and closes at the highest level since October 2023.
- Markets rush to bet on upcoming large stock volatility due to the above geopolitical impact, pushing VIX-linked options volume to the highest since February 2018.

Oil prices fall - traders believe Israel may react cautiously to Iran's weekend attack, reducing the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East.

Japanese yen falls to 34-year low against USD as markets bet on divergent monetary policies between Fed and BOJ:
- As markets fear the Fed may hold hawkish interest rate policy longer if inflation reaccelerates due to supply shock from war.

Hong Kong officially approves series of spot Bitcoin ETF funds

Bitcoin's market share in the cryptocurrency market reaches highest level since 2021

Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, Germany's largest state bank, partners with cryptocurrency exchange Bitpanda to provide crypto custody services

Revenue: 14.21 billion USD, +16% Y/Y, higher than expected 12.92 billion USD
- Fixed income trading: +10% up to 4.32 billion USD, higher than StreetAccount's estimate of 680 million USD
- Stock trading: +10% up to 3.31 billion USD, higher than expected 300 million USD
- Investment banking: +32% up to 2.08 billion USD due to increased demand for debt and equity issuance
Profit: +28% Y/Y up to 4.13 billion USD
EPS: 11.58 USD, much higher than LSEG's expected 8.56 USD

Revenue -7.3% Y/Y down to 4.74 billion USD, slightly higher than expected 4.71 billion USD.
Net interest income -19.4% down to 2.23 billion USD, higher than expected 2.22 billion USD
- Asset management fees +20.6% up to 1.35 billion USD, exceeding expectations of 1.31 billion USD
- Trading revenue -8.4% down to 817 million USD, missing expectations of 824.8 million USD.
- Bank deposit account fees +21.2% up to 183 million USD
Customer average daily trades +1.1% Y/Y and +14.8% Q/Q up to 5.96 million