Market 04/04: February trade deficit surges due to increased imports

Fed officials' statements: Harker, Barkin

Fed Philadelphia Harker: inflation remains high

Inflation remains high, even as the economy has recovered and job growth remains strong

Fed Richmond Barkin: Fed members may have different opinions on the same economic data

The Fed "acting cautiously" when cutting interest rates is wise
Early 2024 data less optimistic => question: has the outlook changed?
Still waiting for the inflation downtrend through the data.
Fed officials may draw different conclusions from the same data

Initial jobless claims last week rose to the highest since January — layoff announcements rose slightly in Feb 2024

Initial jobless claims last week increased +221,000 - highest since January, (previous month: +212,000 prior | estimate +214,000)

Continuing jobless claims decreased 1.791 million (estimate 1.811 million | previous month: 1.81 million).

Challenger Gray February layoff announcements rose slightly +0.7% Y/Y, far from the +8.8% increase last month:

Most job cuts in government agencies, followed by retail and technology sectors

US trade deficit rises to largest level in nearly a year

February trade deficit increases 68.9 billion USD, higher than estimate 67.6 billion USD & 67.6 billion USD previous month

Imports +2.2% M/M; exports +2.3% M/M month-over-month — however, import values increased more than exports, causing the deficit to widen.

Asia: Yuan falls again - BOJ lowers regional economic outlook but expects wage growth

1. China: Yuan falls sharply again, will PBOC intervene?

RMB is nearing the final threshold in the trading band set by PBOC against the USD.

In the past decade, PBOC has intervened strongly 5 times to stabilize the Yuan when CNY neared that policy boundary.

2. Japan: BOJ lowers regional economic outlook but emphasizes positive signals from wage increase wave

BOJ downgraded outlooks for 7/9 domestic economic sectors, highlighting difficulties in economic recovery after BOJ's first rate hike in 17 years.

However, BOJ also emphasized that the wage increase wave in Japan, especially at small businesses, is progressing well.

Former BOJ member says BOJ may wait until autumn before considering another rate hike

Crypto Market: Ripple launches new stablecoin

Ripple launches stablecoin backed by USD and issued on Ethereum and XRP Ledger!

The $150 billion stablecoin market is dominated by Tether and has faced questions about what backs its $105 billion in circulating tokens.
- According to the United Nations, Tether is increasingly becoming a conduit for money laundering and scams transferring money outside the global banking system.
Therefore, Ripple's launch of the above stablecoin directly and strongly competes with Tether!

Google sues 2 developers in China for crypto scams with 87 apps on Play Store

Earnings update: Levi’s, Blackberry

1. Levi’s

Net revenue Q1 FY24: 1.6 billion USD, -8% Y/Y
- Retail: up 7%, e-commerce up 13%, contributing 48% to total net revenue.
- Wholesale: Down 18%
Diluted EPS: 0.26 USD
Gross margin: 58.2%

2. Blackberry

Q4 FY23 revenue: 173 million USD, showing strong performance in IoT and Cybersecurity segments.
- IoT segment: Record revenue of 66 million USD, +25% Y/Y
- Cybersecurity segment: Revenue at 92 million USD, +5% Y/Y, with annual recurring revenue ARR +3% to 280 million USD.
Diluted EPS: Non-GAAP at 0.03 USD, beating expectations and demonstrating financial resilience.

Other news

Ford delays production of new all-electric large pickup and SUV models, prioritizing hybrid development until 2030

Alphabet is reportedly considering acquiring HubSpot

Bank of America sued for breaking promise by not refunding overdraft fees as advertised online to financially struggling customers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Outside of tech, commodities were the best-performing trading market last year:

McKinsey report: commodities market achieved record profits of ~$104 billion last year — led by the rise in oil and gas.

Gold rush also makes Canada a big winner: Canada's trade surplus reaches 1.03 billion USD, higher than expected due to record gold exports