Market 04/02: February hiring highest in nearly half a year

Fed Mester: expects Fed to cut rates end of year but not next meeting

• A strong economy does not mean disinflation will stop

• Still expect Fed to cut rates end of this year but not next meeting!

• Fed is ensuring banks can always use the Discount Window.

• Banks' commercial real estate risk is manageable and the entire regulatory process will take a few years.

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February JOLTS report: Job openings little changed, hires highest in 5 months

February JOLTS Job Openings (number of job postings) is 8.756 million, up slightly from estimate 8.73 million and 8.748 million previous month

Changes in job openings by sector:

• Finance and insurance: +126,000

• State and local government, excluding education: +91,000

• Information: -85,000

February quits rate unchanged at 2.2% (unchanged since November 2023)

February hires rate rises to 3.7% (from cycle low of 3.5% in November)

However both figures (hires and quits) increased sharply:

• Quits rise for second straight month to 3.484 million

• Hires rise to 5.818 million - highest since October 2023 - from 5.698 million in January

February factory orders surge as January data revised lower

• February factory orders rise: +1.4% M/M, above estimate +1% and -3.8% prior month (revised down from -3.6%)

• Factory orders ex-transportation +1.1% M/M (prior month: -0.6%)

• Defense spending falls -12.7% M/M

• Non-defense spending rebounds after largest M/M drop since Covid lockdown

Extraction and oil refining orders rise significantly in February while shipbuilding orders fall most since June 2023

Crypto-currency Market: US government moves 30,000 Bitcoin seized from Silk Road to Coinbase

• Silk Road was a 'dark web' marketplace operating from 2011, allowing anonymous users to conduct illegal transactions such as drug trafficking, weapons, poisons or money laundering with Bitcoin.

• The site shut down in 2013 and Silk Road assets were seized by the US government.

In November 2022, the US government announced seizure of about 3.36 billion USD Bitcoin related to multiple illegal activities on Silk Road.

Today, about 30,000 Silk Road Bitcoin controlled by the US government, worth 2.1 billion USD, is being moved to Coinbase

BTC price dipped below 65,000 USD as market believes US government will start selling today.

Business results update: PVH

• Q4/2023 Revenue: 2.49 billion USD, unchanged YoY

  • B2C: +9% Y/Y, driven by strong performance across all regions

  • B2B: -10% Y/Y, reflecting customers' cautious approach

• EPS GAAP Q4: 4.55 USD

Other news

1. Oil output stable as some members indicate OPEC has delayed implementation of the agreed production cuts.

   • OPEC pumped 26.86 million barrels of crude per day in March

• Official oil price surpasses 85.00 USD for the first time since October 2023.

2. Tesla's Q1 earnings miss expectations:

   • Production volume: 433,371 vehicles

   • Deliveries: 386,810, -8.5% Y/Y, much lower than estimate of 449,080

• Chinese EV maker BYD also underperforms, reporting Q1 sales -42% vs Q4/2023,

  • allowing Tesla to reclaim the crown as the world's largest EV seller.

3. General Electric has completed the split into three separate public companies, focusing on aviation, healthcare, and energy segments.