Market 03/11: Subdued market awaits CPI - crypto set to list on London

February CPI Preview: Wall Street predicts 3.1% Y/Y inflation

Summary of CPI (YoY) growth forecasts from financial institutions:

• Barclays --> 3.2%

• Goldman Sachs --> 3.2%

• Nomura --> 3.2%

• TD Securities: 3.1%

• Wells Fargo: 3.1%

• Citi --> 3.1%

• JP Morgan --> 3.1%

• BofA --> 3.1%

• Scotiabank --> 3.0%

• Median level ---> 3.1% (Unchanged from January CPI +3.1% Y/Y)

Biden administration White House report on economic outlook - public debt:

• Biden administration's 2025 budget is 7.3 trillion USD

• Public debt expected to reach 45 trillion USD in the next decade.

• US real GDP growth expected at 1.8% in 2025

• Inflation and interest rates expected not to cool easily

$56B 3Y Treasury auction: demand improves from foreigners

$56B 3Y Treasury auction had:

• High Yield: 4.256%=, lower than market yield 4.269% but higher than previous auction's 4.169%

  • Of which, 30.57% successful bidders placed at this High Yield

• Bid-to-Cover: 2.35

• Successful bidders breakdown:

  • Primary Dealers only account for 14.4%

  • Foreigners still lead with 70.05%

Market news: Stocks down ahead of CPI, Bitcoin hits new high - Crypto notes await London listing

US stocks decline as investors await CPI data tomorrow

$META:

Meta stock down more than 4% after former President Trump said US TikTok ban would only benefit Facebook. He called Facebook "the enemy of the people".

• $LLY:

Eli Lilly and Company stock falls due to FDA delaying approval decision on Donanemab - antibody for early symptomatic Alzheimer's patients $BE:

LATAM Boeing plane suddenly loses control while in flight. At least 50 injured when Boeing 787 suddenly drops on flight from Sydney to Auckland

• US Department of Justice also opens investigation into Boeing 737 Max incident where fuselage separated mid-air

• Boeing stock falls to lowest level since early November

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$ORCL: Alert — Oracle's Q4 FY23 ER will be released after today's trading session

Bitcoin hits new high - LSE approves listing application for crypto notes backed by BTC and ETH

• Bitcoin has risen for 6 consecutive days, surpassing 72,000 USD and up nearly 70% this year

• BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF $BTC reaches 10 billion USD faster than any ETF in history

London Stock Exchange (LSE) will accept listing application for Bitcoin and Ether crypto ETN (exchange-traded notes) in Q2/2024 (official date not yet clear):

• Bitcoin and Ether crypto ETN: temporarily understood as crypto notes backed in value by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

• Conditions for trading on LSE include:

  • Listed ETNs must be backed by tangible assets or financial assets (first test is Bitcoin and Ethereum).

  • Leveraged (leverage) trading with ETNs not allowed.

Japan: Shunto results may come soon this weekend, Japan avoids technical recession

Q4 GDP revised slightly up to +0.1% Q/Q from preliminary -0.1%, economy avoids recession

Many companies have offered high wage increases in negotiations with Rengo

Shunto results may come soon on 03/15, before BOJ meeting (03/18-19)

Key events for the week of 03/11 - 03/15

1. February CPI inflation data - Tuesday

2. OPEC monthly report - Tuesday

3. February PPI inflation data - Thursday

4. Retail sales - Thursday

5. Initial jobless claims - Thursday

6. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

• Earnings release schedule for companies next week:

Other news

1. Biden administration calls for taxing the rich and corporations to pay for Social Security and healthcare

2. Lawmakers reach $460 billion deal to fund half of government spending for the rest of the fiscal year

3. Fed's BTFP bank discount lending program officially expires after today.

4. Reddit stock expected to start trading at the end of this month. Reddit estimated to have raised $748 million in recent IPO

5. China consecutively cancels US wheat export orders