Economic Insights
Data-driven analysis on economic trends, labor markets, and systemic risks.
Global Central Bank Rates & M2 vs Gold
Pearson correlation analysis of 4 major central bank policy rates, global M2 money supply and gold price across 27 years of annual data.
US Workforce AI Disruption
Challenger Q1 2026 · BLS · PwC · WEF · FactSet · FRED · Morgan Stanley · UBS · Updated Apr 6, 2026
Hormuz Crisis Monitor
DAY 74 / MAY 12 — Trump rejection holds (nuclear OMITTED) · Araghchi meets Putin Moscow (3rd channel) · Trump–Xi Beijing summit T-1 · Brent $107.67 intraday (+5.4%) · Qatar LNG force majeure extended to June 15 · Strait closed Day 25
The War in Iran
🔴 Day 74 / May 12 — Trump rejects Iran 4-demand counter “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE / on life support” · MOU Day 25 of 30-day window · Iran nuclear deliberately omitted Phase 1 · Brent $107.67 intraday (+5.4%) · Trump-Xi Beijing summit T-1 (May 13-15) · Hezbollah 24 attacks/24h (highest since Apr 17 ceasefire) · 0 Iran BM launches Day 6
13F Institutional Holdings Explorer
Browse SEC 13F institutional holdings data from top funds including Berkshire Hathaway, Renaissance Technologies, and more.
Work in progress — new data & visuals coming
FOMC March 2026 Press Conference
March 18, 2026 FOMC press conference summary — rate decision, SEP projections, and key Q&A takeaways on inflation, energy risks, and the Fed leadership transition.
Global Economic Map
Visual breakdown of global interest rates, GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal balances across countries and regions.
US Military Power: Maven AI, Next-Gen Warfare
Deep dive into Maven/Palantir AI system, F-35, B-21, hypersonic weapons, and US vs China military capability comparison. Data from DoD, SIPRI, CSIS, RAND.
More reports in progress.
New analyses are being researched and written.
Data-Driven Analysis for Sophisticated Investors
Economic Insights translates complex macro data, geopolitical risk signals, and institutional positioning into clear, actionable analysis. Each report is built on primary sources — FRED, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, FOMC transcripts, BLS OEWS, IMF, World Bank, EIA, IEA, SEC 13F filings, and OSINT from CENTCOM, IDF, and ISW — and designed to surface the signals that matter most for long-term investors.
What's Inside
Global Central Bank Rates & M2 vs Gold
A 27-year Pearson correlation study of policy rates from the Federal Reserve, ECB, BoJ, and PBoC alongside global M2 money supply and gold. Identifies which monetary regimes have driven gold's largest moves — and what the current setup implies for the next leg.
Iran War & Hormuz Crisis Monitor
Live tracking of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption — Brent prices, tanker dark transits, scenario probabilities, leadership eliminations, and casualty figures. Compiled from CENTCOM, IDF, ISW/CTP, EIA, IEA, and 36+ OSINT sources.
US Workforce AI Disruption
A quantified risk model built on BLS OEWS, Challenger Q1 2026, PwC, WEF, and FactSet data — covering 154M U.S. workers and a $10.3T wage bill. Categorizes occupational exposure across high, medium, and low disruption tiers with sensitivity analysis and scenario modeling.
13F Institutional Holdings Explorer
A full-featured analytics dashboard tracking SEC 13F filings from 40+ major funds. See what smart money bought, sold, and held each quarter — with a Q4 heatmap, multi-fund trend charts, conviction scoring, and a fund-by-fund holdings explorer.
Why It Matters
Institutional-Grade Sources
Every data point is traced to primary sources: BLS, IMF, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, WEF, SEC EDGAR, and peer-reviewed research. No speculation, no hot takes.
Quantitative Modeling
Reports include sensitivity matrices, scenario analysis, and leading indicators so you can stress-test assumptions — not just read conclusions.
Multi-Perspective Framing
Competing narratives are examined side by side. Where analysts disagree, we show the data behind each position and let you form your own view.
Macro-to-Market Bridge
Each insight connects economic trends and institutional flows to portfolio implications — sector rotation, credit risk, consumer spending, and structural investment themes.
Start with Global Central Bank Rates & M2 vs Gold to anchor on the current monetary regime, then cross-check the FOMC press conference summary for the Fed's near-term path. Use the Iran War and Hormuz dashboards to size geopolitical tail risk to oil and supply chains. Turn to the 13F Institutional Holdings explorer to see how the largest funds are positioning around these themes — and the AI Workforce report for structural sector exposure. All are designed to complement your stock-level analysis on TapChiPhoWall.